Sunday, January 03, 2010

Post hoc ergo propter hoc

"Post hoc ergo propter hoc, Latin for "after this, therefore because (on account) of this", is a logical fallacy (of the questionable cause variety) which states, "Since that event followed this one, that event must have been caused by this one." It is often shortened to simply post hoc and is also sometimes referred to as false cause, coincidental correlation or correlation not causation. It is subtly different from the fallacy cum hoc ergo propter hoc, in which the chronological ordering of a correlation is insignificant.

Post hoc is a particularly tempting error because temporal sequence appears to be integral to causality. The fallacy lies in coming to a conclusion based solely on the order of events, rather than taking into account other factors that might rule out the connection. Most familiarly, many superstitious religious beliefs and magical thinking arise from this fallacy.

The form of the post hoc fallacy can be expressed as follows:

* A occurred, then B occurred.
* Therefore, A caused B.

When B is undesirable, this pattern is often extended in reverse: Avoiding A will prevent B.

A class of examples is sometimes called the "Rooster syndrome", for "giving credit to the rooster crowing for the rising of the sun"."

--All text above from
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post_hoc_ergo_propter_hoc

"While I was at the zoo, I had a headache. When I saw zebras, my headache went away. Therefore, my headaches go away when I see zebras. Now when I have a headache, I drive to the zoo, go to the zebras and my headaches go away. Isn't this an amazing discovery I have found?"

"I prayed for God to heal me of the flu. The flu is now over. God healed me! Prayer works." Problem. Christians pray to God when they have a self-limiting disease. A self-limiting disease is one which will heal naturally without medical aid. Therefore, Christian's logic, pray to God for flu to heal. I'm healed. God healed me. Hell, prayer really works! Post hoc ergo propter hoc. Now is my Post Hoc hypothesis that Christians love logical fallacies, correct?

If Christians truly believe that God heals their medical diseases, why do Christians bother to schedule surgery? Why not just pray to their all powerful God to heal them? In a car wreck? Hell, don't accept the ambulance service, just pray to God to heal you. You broke your leg, simply pray to God. You are coughing up blood, just pray! Oh, God won't heal you? Is there something wrong with your faith? Excuse. Your God doesn't heal those things? Excuse. God only answers certain prayers? Excuse.

Start with the premise there is a God, then start tap dancing and make hundreds of excuses why God won't heal what only a surgeon can fix. Or start with the premise there is no God and be happy we have science and modern medicine.

Why are people of faith afraid to admit they simply believe in mythology of old? The operative word is fear. Fear of dying without knowing what happens. Christians and other people with mythological faiths wrap up death with a bow and say death is only a transition to a better life. Bullshit.

Death is a horrible thing because our life ends. It is final. No heaven or hell. Death is not the beginning. Death is the end. Atheists enjoy living, the beauty of life and the beauty of the world more than any Christian (or people of faith) can ever do because non-theists know there is only one life to live.

No comments: